1997 — 2026
How it was done
One story, in order. A rights law, a labour-market decision, a broken promise, a liberal visa system, a Channel route, a court, a repeal. Scroll. Each line is a date you can check.
May 1997
office
01Blair takes office
Net migration around 50,000. Foreign-born share of the population is still in single digits.
Nov 1998
law
02Human Rights Act
ECHR becomes domestic law. Article 3 and Article 8 turn into the standing defence against removal.
2000
law
03Roche speech / Cabinet Office paper
Immigration reframed as an economic and multicultural good. Work permits expand. Neather later describes a political overlay: 'rub the Right's nose in diversity.'
May 2004
law
04A8 accession, no transitional controls
France and Germany use the brake. Britain does not. Forecast: 5–13k a year. Reality: more than a million over the following years.
2002 / 2010
numbers
05Asylum peak, then a new government
Asylum claims peak at 84,130 in 2002. Cameron inherits net migration still above 200,000 and promises 'tens of thousands.'
2015–2016
office
06Broken target, then Brexit
Net migration 332,000 in 2015. Cameron's emergency-brake renegotiation fails to convince. Leave wins. He resigns.
2018–2022
numbers
07The boats become a route
299 people in 2018. 45,755 in 2022. Hotel accommodation, collapsed returns, and a French launch point turn the Channel into a business.
2019–2022
law
08Johnson's taps
Net-migration target scrapped. Care-worker visa with dependants. Student dependants. Humanitarian schemes. The 944,000 peak is now in the pipeline.
14 Jun 2022
court
09Strasbourg grounds the first Rwanda flight
ECHR Rule 39 interim measure in N.S.K. v United Kingdom. An overseas court, overnight, stops a UK removal aircraft.
15 Nov 2023
court
10Supreme Court: Rwanda unlawful
AAA v SSHD [2023] UKSC 42, unanimous. Lord Reed's court finds a refoulement risk. The deterrent needs a new Act of Parliament.
YE Mar 2023
numbers
11944,000
Highest net migration ever recorded by ONS. Care, study, dependants, humanitarian routes. Not boats — those are a smaller, more visible failure.
17 Jan 2024
law
12Rwanda Act passes 320–276
Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens against. Eleven Tories vote no because the bill is too weak. Royal Assent 25 April. No flights follow.
Early 2024
law
13Visa squeeze
Sunak bans most care and student dependants and raises the skilled-worker threshold. These rules, not the boats policy, drive the later fall.
6 Jul 2024
office
14Starmer cancels Rwanda
First act of the new government. Cooper writes to Kigali on 22 July. Four volunteers had gone. Cost: on the order of £700 million.
2025
law
1541,472 boats; Border Security Act
Worst Channel year since 2022. The Act creates a command, adds gang offences, and repeals the Rwanda Act and the IMA core. Hermer vows never to leave the ECHR.
5 Sep 2025
office
16Cooper out, Mahmood in
Home Secretary replaced after a summer of hotel protests. Mahmood later calls the asylum system 'out of control' and announces a crackdown — still inside the ECHR.
16 Mar 2026
law
17Rwanda treaty dies
Formal termination. Labour's 2024 pledge, completed. The legal deterrent is gone.
2025–2026
numbers
18Numbers now
Net migration 171,000 in 2025 (ONS) — a fall built largely on 2024 Conservative visa rules Labour kept. Small boats YE June 2026: 33,374. France returns: about 1,100 in nine months. Foreign-born: 19%.